Spillovers

One concerning complexity of post Cold War era wars is the tendency of a war in one country has a tendency to spill over to neighboring countries, thus creating wars in neighboring countries. Oftentimes combatants form those countries tend to support each-over, and in several cases some rebel groups might be fighting at two countries at once. Spillovers often times make the situation more serious and complex. Some cases of wars spilling over to other countries that will be discussed in this post are Syria, Rwanda, and Liberia.

Syria; The infamous Islamic State (better known to Americans as ISIS) rebel group after waging a successful campaign against the Iraqi government for Anabar, invaded Syria. Once in Syria, the Islamic State attacked the government and insurgents groups alike. This further made the already complex nature of the Syrian opposition even more complex, and worsened infighting among the Syrian rebel groups. The Syrian government often launches airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq, and Iraq does the same thing in Syria. Because of ISIS, the Iraq and Syrian Civil Wars are interconnected. If ISIS is successful, the boundaries determined by the Sykes-Picot Agreement will be discarded and Syria and Iraq will be one country under ISIS banner. Other more minor spillovers of Syria/Iraq War are some incidents in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and even Libya.

Liberia; National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL) leader Charles Taylor needed the diamond fields of Sierra Leone to fund his insurgency in Liberia. In order to access the diamond fields, he funded Sierra Leone dissidents that organized themselves into the Revolutionary United Front (RUF). Several NPFL fighters came to Sierra Leone to aid the RUF. The Sierra Leone government retaliated by supporting an anti NPFL called the United Liberation Movement of Liberia for Democracy (ULIMO). ULIMO helped the Sierra Leone government fight the RUF, but ULIMO was more interested in fighting the NPFL in Liberia. Meanwhile, RUF leaders thought the NPFL was taking too much control of the RUF. This lead to clashes between the RUF and the NPFL leading the NPFL driven out of Sierra Leone. Despite the infighting, the NPFL still continued to support the RUF. The RUF even fought anti Taylor rebel groups in the 2nd Liberian Civil War.

Rwanda; The civil wars of the African Great Lakes are much interconnected with each-over with combatants from Rwanda, Burundi, DRC, and Uganda supporting and fighting each-overs wars. In Rwanda, the Tutsi rebel group Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) launched its insurgency against the Hutu government. In Burundi, the roles were reversed with Hutu rebel groups like the National Council for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD) started fighting against the Tutsi military government. With the 1st Hutu president assassinated by the Tutsi military, violence broke out between the Tutsi government and the Hutu rebels. When the presidents of both countries were assassinated when their plan was shot down by unknown attackers, this sparked the Rwandan genocide and escalated the Burundian Civil War. After the Hutu government was toppled in Rwanda, several remnants of the Hutu regime fled to the neighboring Zarie. The RPF government demanded that the Mobutu regime in Zarie to stop sheltering members of the Hutu government-in-exile. Mobutu and his government refused to stop sheltering, so as a result the RPF (along with Uganda and Burundi) supported Lurent Kabila's Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of the Congo (AFDL). The AFDL conquers Zarie within a year and topples the Mobutu government. However critics of Kabila's new government accused it of being Rwandan puppets. So to prevent the criticisms from heating to a coup, Kabila dumps his former backers. His angry ex-backers create uprisings in retaliation for Kabila's betrayal. The resulting war ended in a confusing affair with up to 25 militant groups and 8 national armies, with "friends" fighting "friends" as much as their enemies, violent inter-factional fighting leading to even more rebel groups, and alliances breaking and forming as much as teenage girls change their clothes. The CNDD, LRA, remnant groups of Rwandan Genocide perpetrators like the FDLR, tribal self defense groups, foreign backed rebel groups like various RCD factions, along with others were all involved in the war. The war theoretically ended with the Sun City agreement, but violence still continuities on.